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Thứ hai, 06 Tháng 9 2010
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Thứ tư, 27 Tháng 1 2010 05:38

AVSC dá»± kiến VN-Index khó vượt được đỉnh cÅ© là 540 Ä‘iểm trong đợt tăng này. Nhà đầu tư nên tận dụng cÆ¡ há»™i này để cÆ¡ cấu lại danh mục và tăng tá»· trá»ng tiá»n mặt.

Chứng khoán Bản Việt (VCSC): Một số lý do giải thích cho việc tăng điểm ấn tượng ngày 26/1:

Thứ nhất, thông tin lãi suất cÆ¡ bản được giữ nguyên ở mức 8% trong tháng 2/2010. Như vậy, những lo ngại vá» việc Ä‘iá»u chỉnh lãi suất đã được giải tá»a. Äây có thể là má»™t quyết định phù hợp tại thá»i Ä‘iểm hiện tại khi áp lá»±c lạm phát không đáng lo (CPI cá»§a tháng 1 tăng 1,36%).

Thứ hai, thông tin Chính phá»§ chào bán 1 tá»· USD trái phiếu thá»i hạn 10 năm vá»›i lợi suất 6,95% ra nước ngoài thành công. Việc này giúp giảm nhẹ phần nào cán cân thanh toán vãng lai khi mà thâm hụt thương mại trong tháng 1/2010 đã là 1,3 tá»· USD và vẫn có dấu hiệu leo thang trong những tháng tiếp theo.

Thứ ba, việc lãi suất qua đêm giảm mạnh, giảm 1,05%/năm so với lãi suất qua đêm tuần trước đó, đã cho thấy mức độ căng thẳng vỠthanh khoản giữa các ngân hàng đã được cải thiện rõ rệt.

Thứ tư, thông tin kết quả kinh doanh quý IV năm 2009 cá»§a nhiá»u doanh nghiệp được công bố khá khả quan, vượt kỳ vá»ng cá»§a nhiá»u nhà đầu tư.

Thứ năm, thị trưá»ng Mỹ đã tăng Ä‘iểm trở lại sau 3 ngày giảm mạnh sau những lo ngại vá» chính sách tiá»n tệ cá»§a Chính quyá»n Obama và niá»m tin đã trở vá» vá»›i phố wall khi GDP cá»§a Mỹ được dá»± báo tăng mạnh trong quý IV năm 2009.

Tuy nhiên, nguy cÆ¡ Ä‘iá»u chỉnh lãi suất vào thá»i Ä‘iểm sau Tết sẽ lại trở thành má»™t rá»§i ro chưa giải tá»a được, vì khó khăn trong huy động vốn cá»§a ngân hàng vẫn tiếp tục và hiệu quả cá»§a việc tăng lãi suất có thể có tác dụng hÆ¡n vào thá»i Ä‘iểm sau tết, tức là từ tháng 3 trở Ä‘i.

Lý do là vì lúc đó các nguồn vốn nhàn rá»—i trong ná»n kinh tế sẽ dồi dào hÆ¡n: doanh nghiệp có nguồn tiá»n bán hàng nhân dịp tết, các khoản lương thưởng tết cá»§a ngưá»i lao động và lượng kiá»u hối từ nước ngoài gá»­i vá» cho thân nhân.

Do vậy, VCSC cho rằng nhà đầu tư không nên quá hào hứng vá»›i thông tin lãi suất được giữ nguyên trong tháng 2 vì xu thế tăng ổn định trong trung hạn vẫn chưa được thiết lập. Tuy vậy, vá»›i tâm lý hiện tại, VCSC thiên vá» khả năng thị trưá»ng sẽ tiếp tục đà hưng phấn thêm má»™t vài phiên nữa.

Chứng khoán Âu Việt (AVSC): Äây nhiá»u khả năng chỉ là đợt Ä‘iá»u chỉnh tăng chứ chưa thể là chu kỳ tăng khi dòng thông tin há»— trợ không đủ mạnh và khó kéo dài.

AVSC dá»± kiến VN-Index khó vượt được đỉnh cÅ© là 540 Ä‘iểm trong đợt tăng này. Nhà đầu tư nên tận dụng cÆ¡ há»™i này để cÆ¡ cấu lại danh mục và tăng tá»· trá»ng tiá»n mặt. Nhà đầu tư chấp nhận rá»§i ro cao thì có thể xem xét mua thêm cổ phiếu trên ná»n cổ phiếu đã có sẵn để có thể chá»§ động bán được sá»›m nếu thị trưá»ng biến động.

Chứng khoán Bảo Việt (BVSC): Tiếp nối đà hồi phục sau khi tiếp cận ngưỡng hỗ trợ 470 điểm, VnIndex có thêm một phiên tăng điểm mạnh trong ngày 26/1.Khối lượng giao dịch được cải thiện so với phiên trước nhưng vẫn đứng ở mức trung bình thấp so với mặt bằng chung trong giai đoạn gần đây.

Trong phiên giao dịch ngày 27/1, thị trưá»ng sẽ thá»­ thách ngưỡng kháng cá»± tâm lý tại 500 Ä‘iểm. Lá»±c cung nhiá»u khả năng sẽ gia tăng do áp lá»±c chốt lá»i ngắn hạn cá»§a các lượng cổ phiếu được mua trong 1 vài phiên trước vá» tài khoản cá»§a các nhà đầu tư và sá»± giằng co mạnh sẽ diá»…n ra.

BVSC vẫn đánh giá cao khả năng thị trưá»ng Ä‘ang nằm trong sóng 2 thứ cấp thuá»™c sóng 3 sÆ¡ cấp theo lý thuyết sóng Elliott vá»›i má»™t ngưỡng há»— trợ tại 470 Ä‘iểm và má»™t vùng há»— trợ mạnh tại 450-460 Ä‘iểm. Äể nhận biết VnIndex đã bước sang sóng 3 thứ cấp hay chưa, theo BVSC cần quan sát thêm những tín hiệu xác nhận trong má»™t vài phiên tá»›i.

So sánh tương quan mức độ rá»§i ro và lợi nhuận trong ngắn hạn, thá»i Ä‘iểm hiện tại chưa được xem là thá»i Ä‘iểm thích hợp để các nhà đầu tư ngắn hạn tham gia vào thị trưá»ng. Ngược lại, đối vá»›i các nhà đầu tư trung và dài hạn, BVSC cho rằng vẫn có thể tiếp tục giải ngân từng bước khi VnIndex sụt giảm và tiếp cận các vùng há»— trợ mạnh.

Chứng khoán Hòa Bình (HBS): Như HBS đã nhận định trong các bản tin trước đây, chỉ số VNIndex đã có bước di chuyển nhẹ (side way) và tạo đáy quanh mốc 480; và phiên giao dịch ngày 26/1/2010, VNIndex tăng khá mạnh bứt phá lên sát mốc 500 điểm.

Nhiá»u lo ngại, cẩn trá»ng vẫn được nhắc đến nhiá»u, đặc biệt mốc tâm lý 500 và mốc tạo đỉnh đợt vừa qua 530-540 Ä‘iểm Ä‘ang rất gần. Tuy nhiên, HBS nhận định thị trưá»ng sẽ tiếp tục Ä‘i lên nhá» tình hình báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh cá»§a các doanh nghiệp rất khả quan và mốc kỳ vá»ng VNIndex đạt được trong ngắn hạn là 560 Ä‘iểm.

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