Công ty chứng khoán nhận định thị trường ngày 27/1

Thứ tư, 27 Tháng 1 2010 05:38

AVSC dự kiến VN-Index khó vượt được đỉnh cũ là 540 điểm trong đợt tăng này. Nhà đầu tư nên tận dụng cơ hội này để cơ cấu lại danh mục và tăng tỷ trọng tiền mặt.

Chứng khoán Bản Việt (VCSC): Một số lý do giải thích cho việc tăng điểm ấn tượng ngày 26/1:

Thứ nhất, thông tin lãi suất cơ bản được giữ nguyên ở mức 8% trong tháng 2/2010. Như vậy, những lo ngại về việc điều chỉnh lãi suất đã được giải tỏa. Đây có thể là một quyết định phù hợp tại thời điểm hiện tại khi áp lực lạm phát không đáng lo (CPI của tháng 1 tăng 1,36%).

Thứ hai, thông tin Chính phủ chào bán 1 tỷ USD trái phiếu thời hạn 10 năm với lợi suất 6,95% ra nước ngoài thành công. Việc này giúp giảm nhẹ phần nào cán cân thanh toán vãng lai khi mà thâm hụt thương mại trong tháng 1/2010 đã là 1,3 tỷ USD và vẫn có dấu hiệu leo thang trong những tháng tiếp theo.

Thứ ba, việc lãi suất qua đêm giảm mạnh, giảm 1,05%/năm so với lãi suất qua đêm tuần trước đó, đã cho thấy mức độ căng thẳng về thanh khoản giữa các ngân hàng đã được cải thiện rõ rệt.

Thứ tư, thông tin kết quả kinh doanh quý IV năm 2009 của nhiều doanh nghiệp được công bố khá khả quan, vượt kỳ vọng của nhiều nhà đầu tư.

Thứ năm, thị trường Mỹ đã tăng điểm trở lại sau 3 ngày giảm mạnh sau những lo ngại về chính sách tiền tệ của Chính quyền Obama và niềm tin đã trở về với phố wall khi GDP của Mỹ được dự báo tăng mạnh trong quý IV năm 2009.

Tuy nhiên, nguy cơ điều chỉnh lãi suất vào thời điểm sau Tết sẽ lại trở thành một rủi ro chưa giải tỏa được, vì khó khăn trong huy động vốn của ngân hàng vẫn tiếp tục và hiệu quả của việc tăng lãi suất có thể có tác dụng hơn vào thời điểm sau tết, tức là từ tháng 3 trở đi.

Lý do là vì lúc đó các nguồn vốn nhàn rỗi trong nền kinh tế sẽ dồi dào hơn: doanh nghiệp có nguồn tiền bán hàng nhân dịp tết, các khoản lương thưởng tết của người lao động và lượng kiều hối từ nước ngoài gửi về cho thân nhân.

Do vậy, VCSC cho rằng nhà đầu tư không nên quá hào hứng với thông tin lãi suất được giữ nguyên trong tháng 2 vì xu thế tăng ổn định trong trung hạn vẫn chưa được thiết lập. Tuy vậy, với tâm lý hiện tại, VCSC thiên về khả năng thị trường sẽ tiếp tục đà hưng phấn thêm một vài phiên nữa.

Chứng khoán Âu Việt (AVSC): Đây nhiều khả năng chỉ là đợt điều chỉnh tăng chứ chưa thể là chu kỳ tăng khi dòng thông tin hỗ trợ không đủ mạnh và khó kéo dài.

AVSC dự kiến VN-Index khó vượt được đỉnh cũ là 540 điểm trong đợt tăng này. Nhà đầu tư nên tận dụng cơ hội này để cơ cấu lại danh mục và tăng tỷ trọng tiền mặt. Nhà đầu tư chấp nhận rủi ro cao thì có thể xem xét mua thêm cổ phiếu trên nền cổ phiếu đã có sẵn để có thể chủ động bán được sớm nếu thị trường biến động.

Chứng khoán Bảo Việt (BVSC): Tiếp nối đà hồi phục sau khi tiếp cận ngưỡng hỗ trợ 470 điểm, VnIndex có thêm một phiên tăng điểm mạnh trong ngày 26/1.Khối lượng giao dịch được cải thiện so với phiên trước nhưng vẫn đứng ở mức trung bình thấp so với mặt bằng chung trong giai đoạn gần đây.

Trong phiên giao dịch ngày 27/1, thị trường sẽ thử thách ngưỡng kháng cự tâm lý tại 500 điểm. Lực cung nhiều khả năng sẽ gia tăng do áp lực chốt lời ngắn hạn của các lượng cổ phiếu được mua trong 1 vài phiên trước về tài khoản của các nhà đầu tư và sự giằng co mạnh sẽ diễn ra.

BVSC vẫn đánh giá cao khả năng thị trường đang nằm trong sóng 2 thứ cấp thuộc sóng 3 sơ cấp theo lý thuyết sóng Elliott với một ngưỡng hỗ trợ tại 470 điểm và một vùng hỗ trợ mạnh tại 450-460 điểm. Để nhận biết VnIndex đã bước sang sóng 3 thứ cấp hay chưa, theo BVSC cần quan sát thêm những tín hiệu xác nhận trong một vài phiên tới.

So sánh tương quan mức độ rủi ro và lợi nhuận trong ngắn hạn, thời điểm hiện tại chưa được xem là thời điểm thích hợp để các nhà đầu tư ngắn hạn tham gia vào thị trường. Ngược lại, đối với các nhà đầu tư trung và dài hạn, BVSC cho rằng vẫn có thể tiếp tục giải ngân từng bước khi VnIndex sụt giảm và tiếp cận các vùng hỗ trợ mạnh.

Chứng khoán Hòa Bình (HBS): Như HBS đã nhận định trong các bản tin trước đây, chỉ số VNIndex đã có bước di chuyển nhẹ (side way) và tạo đáy quanh mốc 480; và phiên giao dịch ngày 26/1/2010, VNIndex tăng khá mạnh bứt phá lên sát mốc 500 điểm.

Nhiều lo ngại, cẩn trọng vẫn được nhắc đến nhiều, đặc biệt mốc tâm lý 500 và mốc tạo đỉnh đợt vừa qua 530-540 điểm đang rất gần. Tuy nhiên, HBS nhận định thị trường sẽ tiếp tục đi lên nhờ tình hình báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh của các doanh nghiệp rất khả quan và mốc kỳ vọng VNIndex đạt được trong ngắn hạn là 560 điểm.

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