Theo Sacombank-SBS, do mặt bằng P/E của nhóm bluechips hiện khá hấp dẫn nên khả năng thị trường giảm sâu là rất nhỏ.

Sacombank-SBS: Trong những phiên giao dịch gần đây, thị trường đã đón nhận thông tin về định hướng chính sách tiền tệ của cơ quan quản lý theo hướng nới lỏng, giảm mặt bằng lãi suất chung và đó được coi là thông tin hỗ trợ vững chắc cho thị trường trong trung hạn.

Do vậy, tâm lý nhà đầu tư khá ổn định trong thời điểm hiện tại, và nhìn chung đều lạc quan với thị trường. Tuy vậy, xu hướng tích lũy và tăng nhẹ vẫn chiếm chủ đạo với  việc đi ngang của nhóm bluechips.

Do mặt bằng P/E của nhóm bluechips hiện khá hấp dẫn (10-12) nên khả năng giảm sâu là rất nhỏ. Bên cạnh đó dòng tiền đầu cơ đang tập trung vào penny stocks và midcaps nên khả năng tăng mạnh của bluechips cũng là khá thấp - ít nhất là trong ngắn hạn.

Chứng khoán Bản Việt (VCSC): Sau một thời gian dài đi ngang, các cổ phiếu blue chip đã quay trở lại vị thế dẫn dắt thị trường. Sự thoái trào của các cổ phiếu penny có thể được lý giải là do tính hấp dẫn của các cổ phiếu này không còn nữa sau giai đoạn tăng trưởng mạnh. Mức lợi nhuận kỳ vọng trở nên quá thấp để các nhà đầu tư có thể chấp nhận rủi ro khi đầu tư vào các cổ phiếu penny.

Trong khi đó,  giá của các cổ phiếu blue chip, đặc biệt là những mã có triển vọng tăng trưởng doanh thu và lợi nhuận tốt, đã trở nên tương đối rẻ so với các cổ phiếu penny. Kết quả là nhà đầu tư giờ đây quay trở lại với các cổ phiếu có các yếu tố nền tảng vững chắc với mức rủi ro thấp hơn.

Kỳ vọng lãi suất cho vay sẽ về mức thấp hơn và hợp lý hơn nhờ các biện pháp can thiệp của Ngân hàng Nhà Nước vẫn tiếp tục là yếu tố hỗ trợ xu hướng tăng trưởng của thị trường trong ngắn hạn. Tuy nhiên, thị trường vẫn chưa có được các thay đổi đột biến về mặt điểm số do áp lực chốt lời trong ngắn hạn ngay khi các cổ phiếu đạt được mức lợi nhuận 10-15% do các nhà đầu tư vẫn còn khá thận trọng trước những diễn biến của các yếu tố vĩ mô – trong đó CPI là một yếu tố quan trọng chi phối diễn biến của thị trường. Nếu CPI tháng 4 có xu hướng giảm, thị trường có thể sẽ giữ được xu hướng tăng điểm qua tháng 5. Bên cạnh đó, với những cải thiện về dòng tiền, chúng tôi kỳ vọng thị trường sẽ duy trì đà tăng chậm nhưng chắc chắn như hiện tại.

Chứng khoán VNDirect: Giá  trị giao dịch có sụt giảm chút ít so với ngày thứ Sáu (9-4-2010) nhưng vẫn ở mức cao khi HOSE khớp 2.085 tỷ đồng và HNX khớp 1.713 tỷ đồng – đều cao hơn giá trị trung bình 50 ngày. Đây là dấu hiệu của dòng tiền đang ra tăng nhờ sự hỗ trợ của Ngân hàng Nhà nước.

Điều đáng chú ý là các mã penny thuộc các ngành đã tăng mạnh trong 2 tuần qua như khoáng sản, thép hôm nay phần lớn đều giảm giá, nhiều mã giảm sàn chứng tỏ động thái chốt lãi của dòng tiền đầu cơ.

Với tình hình kinh tế vĩ mô như hiện nay, theo VNDirect, việc VN-Index vượt đỉnh cao cũ 545 điểm chỉ  là vấn đề thời gian. Quan điểm đầu tư trung và dài hạn của VNDirect vẫn là “Mua và nắm giữ”.

Trong ngắn hạn sức cầu sụt giảm vào cuối phiên vừa qua gợi mở khả năng điều chỉnh giảm của chỉ số này sau 8 phiên tăng. Tuy nhiên, ít có khả năng Vn-Index sẽ giảm sâu xuống dưới 510 điểm do sức mua rất mạnh đã được thử thách trong tuần qua ở mức giá dưới 515 điểm.

Nhà đầu tư nên tận dụng cơ hội mua vào nếu VN-Index về gần đến 510 điểm. Mục tiêu chốt lãi ngắn hạn sẽ ở vùng 525-530 điểm trong tuần này. Nên cẩn trọng với các mã đã tăng nhiều trong thời gian qua và có những phiên giao dịch tăng đột biến – dấu hiệu phân phối của giới đầu cơ.

Chứng khoán Bảo Việt (BVSC): Nhìn chung, diễn biến của thị trường ngày 12/4 là tương đối tích cực. VN-Index tăng điểm mạnh mẽ ngay sau khi mởcửa. Mặc dù đà tăng điểm của thị trường có xu hướng yếu dần về cuối phiên khiến VnIndex không thể trụ vững trên ngưỡng kháng cự quan trọng tại 521 điểm, tuy nhiên BVSC vẫn nhận thấy một tâm lý khá lạc quan của nhàđầu tư khi lượng cung ở giá thấp không thật sự nhiều.

Nhóm cổ phiếu penny vẫn là đầu tàu dẫn dắt thị trườngđi lên trong khi dòng tiền dường như vẫn chưa thực sự sẵn sàng tìm đến với các cổ phiếu blue-chips. Tuy vậy, nếunhư thị trường tiếp tục tăng điểm và các cổ phiếu penny điều chỉnh, nhiều khả năng dòng tiền sẽ quay trở lại vớicác blue-chips do tương quan mặt bằng giá hấp dẫn.

Trên phương diện kinh tế vĩ mô, tình hình lãi suất cho vay củacác ngân hàng vẫn chưa thật sự có chuyển biến rõ rệt bất chấp hoạt động bơm vốn tích cực của NHNN trên thị trường mở (trung bình 6.000 tỷ/ngày). BVSC cho rằng sẽ vẫn phải mất một thời gian để nỗ lực kéo lãi suấtcho vay xuống một mặt bằng thấp hơn của các ngân hàng phát huy tác dụng thật sự.

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